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Mid-Year 2025 Investment Outlook
- 18 August 2025
- 5 MIN READ
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Presenting our Mid-Year 2025 Investment Outlook, where we discuss key macro trends and opportunities, shaping the global economy for the remainder of the year.
Key takeaways
01
It remains to be seen whether rising tariffs will push up prices and dampen consumer confidence in the U.S. As more tariff agreements fall in place, the level of uncertainty should reduce in H2 2025. The U.S. exceptionalism may not fade in the medium-term and therefore we may expect an increased demand for U.S. assets.
02
The rate cuts from the Federal Reserve may not materialize until the last quarter of 2025. A premature resignation by Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell remains a key risk that could undermine the very foundation of the market dynamics of the U.S. Dollar. In Europe, the ECB has implemented 8 rate cuts since mid-2024. With inflation around ECB's target, there is not much scope for further rate cuts, making sovereign bonds unattractive. Valuations are stretched in IG & HY. Selective opportunities exist in the European AT1 space.
03
Global growth is projected at 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 as per the World Economic Outlook. This reflects front-loading ahead of tariffs, lower effective tariff rates, better financial conditions, and fiscal expansion in some major jurisdictions.
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